Nokia's Last Stand

Nokia officially announced its long rumored and recently outed Windows Phone 8 devices with Lumia 920 (Phi) and Lumia 820 (Arrow). Stephen Elop, CEO of Nokia announced these devices earlier today in New York. The premium 920 boasts specs and features on par with the best the smartphone industry has to offer while the mid-end Lumia 820 offers an affordable entry point to Windows Phone 8 ecosystem. Both of them are expected to launch sometime in Q4 this year.The Lumia 920, in my opinion is not just Nokia's best shot at winning back respect and marketshare in the crowded smartphone world- but probably its last meaningful one. The company is struggling with getting a toehold in the smartphone business and hasn't cracked the code yet. Meanwhile, Android and iOS are galloping away from the rest of the pack. And in an industry where perception means everything, Nokia will soon get the "also-ran" label that has already been slapped on RIM. For Nokia's sake, the Lumia 920 has to succeed. And big time at that.The Lumia 900, launched with much fanfare and reasonable reviews in April didn't do much to help Nokia's long way back to relevance. It had mediocre hardware specs partially due to Windows Phone 7 and a serious lack of buzz. Add to it, Microsoft killed its future in the summer by announcing that the Lumia would not be upgradeable to Windows Phone 8. This time around, the Lumia 920 is being launched early in the Windows Phone 8 cycle alongside big hitters from Samsung (ATIV), HTC (pending formal announcement on Sept 19) and others. The Lumia 920 could stand out with its distinctive design, colors, wireless charging and build quality. It could also be swallowed by the marketing might of Samsung. But here is the biggest risk to Lumia 920's success- Microsoft. Yes, Microsoft.Unlike the last two Lumia launches (Lumia 800 in Fall 2011 and Lumia 900 in Spring 2012), Microsoft's enthusiastic embrace of Nokia is missing. Not to say that Microsoft doesnt like having Nokia in its fold. It is almost as if Microsoft is less reliant on the partnership than it was, a year ago. With good pre-release buzz for Windows Phone 8 and Surface, there is less of a dependence on Nokia's hardware for Microsoft to drive its eco-system forward. Nokia seems to be bringing everything it has to the table for one last hail Mary. And Microsoft was conspicuously missing in the thick of the action, so to speak. Last year, when the partnership between the two companies was announced, Microsoft needed Nokia as much as Nokia needed Microsoft. Or so it appeared. This time around, it definitely feels like Nokia needs Microsoft far more than Microsoft appears to need Nokia.From Nokia's standpoint, it needs a hit badly. While its feature phones continue to sell by the boatload, the margin rich smartphone business is where all the action and money is. It can harp as much as it wants on the continuing success of its feature phone business with Asha, but low cost Android devices are starting to takeover the feature phone segment too. Plus, its cash situation, while not precarious is not the best. At some point, Microsoft might just choose to walk away from spending any more money on Nokia Windows Phone products and that would be a killed blow financially for Nokia.Nokia did not help its cause today by being vague on launch specifics for the Lumia 920 and 820. With the iPhone 5 expected to be announced next week and Motorola announcing its latest Android devices, not to mention Galaxy S3's continuing sales numbers, Nokia needed a winner and fast. By not announcing carriers, price, and launch date, it did itself no favors. But if anyone can do it, it is Nokia. The 920 boasts design sensibilities and aesthetics bar none. It is one heck of a product. I spent some time with the Lumia 900 and walked away very impressed with the build quality and design of the hardware. The 920 only kicks it up a notch. The camera seems world class as is the screen and overall build of the device. Now if Nokia can figure out a way to sell it, that would seal the deal. There is real excitement for the product if Nokia can actually ship it on time and make it count.Will Nokia, the company survive if the Lumia 920 fails to get traction?. Yes. Will Nokia, the once industry leading cellphone giant be relevant if the Lumia 920 fails?. No.And that is why I believe the Lumia 920 represents Nokia's last stand. As a company that matters in the business it pretty much built for the world to use and enjoy.